Thursday, March 22, 2012


The steep decline in the Arab fertility rate west of the Jordan River ­ in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and pre-1967 Israel ­ reflects the demographic revolution throughout the Muslim world, especially in the Arab countries of the Middle East.


According to the 2011 CIA Factbook, the fertility in Iran, the most religious Shiite country, is 1.87 births per woman, in Saudi Arabia, the most religious Sunni country ­ 2.5, in the small Gulf States ­ 2.5, in North Africa ­ 2.5, in Syria ­ 3, in Egypt ­ 2.94, in Jordan ­ 3.4, in Iraq ­ 3.76, in Yemen ­ 4.81 and in Sudan ­ 4.93 births per woman.


In 1969, the Israeli Arab fertility rate (which is similar to the Judea and Samaria Arab fertility rate) was 6 births higher than the Jewish fertility rate.  In 2012, the Arab-Jewish fertility gap plunged to 0.5 births. Moreover, the fertility rates of younger Arab and Jewish women have converged at 3 births per woman, while the average Israeli-born Jewish mothers already exceed 3 births per woman. Jewish fertility trends upward (particularly within the secular sector!), and Arab fertility trends downward, as a result of successful integration of Arabs ­ and especially Arab women - into the infrastructures of modernity.


The Jewish fertility rate in Israel is higher than any Arab countries, other than Sudan, Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, which are trending downward.


The triggers of the demographic revolution among Arabs west of the Jordan River are very similar to those which caused the overall Muslim/Arab demographic implosion: urbanization, expanded primary, secondary and tertiary education primarily among women, more assertive women at home and in the workforce, family planning, all-time high wedding and reproductive age, all-time low teen pregnancy, all-time high divorce rates and youthful emigration.  In 2012, an increasing number of Arab women remain unmarried during their 20s.



Israel TV : Jerusalem belongs only to G-D! with Neil Young





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